We’re kicking off our Inside Social Apps conference today with our first panel, focused on the future of social gaming. It’s focused on key questions for the industry in 2011 — the emergence of Credits as the mandatory virtual currency on Facebook, the rise of mobile social gaming, and more.
Inside Network founder Justin Smith is moderating. The panelists include:
Kristian Segerstrale, CEO & Co-Founder, Playfish (now part of EA)
Peter Relan, Executive Chairman, CrowdStar
Vish Makhijani, SVP Business Operations, Zynga
Rick Thompson, Co-founder, Playdom (now part of Disney)
The live transcript (paraphrased in parts and edited for brevity)
JS: How healthy is social gaming?
RT: I’m an investor in three social gaming companies. Last year was a good time to look for exits, people thought — however, I was bullish. Still am. But what we’ve seen are the huge challenges faced by smaller developers — cost of acquisition has gone way up, and we have Credits looming. There will be a 30% revenue tax. Things have gotten close to the breaking point. The ecosystem is terribly damaged but there are reasons to be optimistic. Credits is great, even though painful. Facebook now cares about developer revenue.
VM: Given how Zynga’s doing with CityVille… Rick’s point is well-taken. Perhaps Facebook is not as open now versus when it was before? Game developers are getting more nuanced, better. 2010 had its bumps.
KS: Market is maturing. It grew at crazy pace. If you look at games over the last 30 years, fastest ever. Bigger, more immersive, branded experiences will emerge.
PR: Very challenging last year for a lot of people. Simultaneously unbridled distribution of 2008, 2009 were gone. Credits kept coming in to take the revenue margin down. Questionable. In the long-run, if you look at Facebook, Zuck’s long-term philosophy is that it is going to be healthy. We were always a big believer in Credits. We had our challenges last year. Vish, they had a monstrous launch with CityVille. Can others replicate? My guess is that by the second half of this year, ecosystem will have stabilized from last year, year and a half.
JS: What can Facebook do to make the ecosystem work for small to mid-sized developers?
PR: I was interested to see the article in TechCrunch saying that Vish was paying Facebook $30 million a month [Vish smiles]. That must mean their total revenue is huge.
RT: Two years ago we had pretty much free access to users. The philosophy was iterate your way to success. Inevitable that Facebook dialed back virality. How can they dial virality back up? Heard the phrase “targeted virality” coming from folks at Facebook. That would be win-win for all. Other initiative is better targeting: those developers who are able to develop a high ARPU game, also able to target users. If you have half a million DAUs, you can actually target users. Those are two good tech trends. Third: sense of curation. Facebook will be under tremendous pressure to diversify revenue and have 10-12 successful developers.
JS: Peter, why will Credits help small developers?
PR: In the attempt to get Facebook Credits to be more pervasive, there will be an attempt to help developers who sign-on through incentives, other efforts. I don’t know the details. Not just have 3-4 of us, but the entire ecosystem. There are a bunch of developers that need the help. The tax is there so you need help.
VM: In our adoption of Credits over past months, the Facebook brand is good, trusted. The Credits team has continued to work to improve.
JS: Acquisitions — how will they help big brands? What evidence?
KS: Based on my experience also in mobile, the first big titles tend to be new IP — what happens with every platform as skillsets become common knowledge, two things happen. Quality rises to the top. All other things equal, consumers tend to choose things they recognize. Allows you to acquire customers cheaper and keep them longer because you can reach them across platforms. Just harder versus those folks who can leverage.
JS: Evidence that this is already happening?
KS: Seen some in sports. Didn’t really exist a year ago. Now, FIFA All-Stars and Madden All-Stars, other Playfish games are examples. Same time, it is the most dynamic game platform in the world right now in terms of how it’s evolving.
JS: If you were a competitor to Disney and EA — what would you do in 2011?
RT: Evolving quickly and slowly at the same time. Take time to develop high-quality property, make those be commercial successes. Disclaimer is that I’m part of Disney or Playdom.
JS: What’s going to happen with acquisitions? Lot of media companies interested. Peter, you’re part of the “big four,” what do you think is going to happen this year?
PR: Once business goes beyond making a string of hits, you need the whole production process. Monetization, retention. We’ll be acquiring very select assets to add to our games. I see some consolidation. I look at mobile this year as well. I don’t think we’ll be doing quite what Playdom did last year, which was quite a bit of acquisition. Primarily to leverage platform. Quite pervasive, as ecosystem stabilizers this year, and gets healthy.
JS: So Vish what do you think?
VM: We’ve been quite acquisitive, but mostly around small teams. Awed and humbled, mostly constrained by not having enough talented people. Acquired something like 9 companies in the last 8 months. We’re thinking about mobile, international expansion.
JS: Back in the day, 2007, 2008 you were building other platforms. Now building for mobile, Asia. Are the same guys dominating social going to be the same dominating mobile?
VM: No presumptions of success. Building our team, going our classic way that Mark has run the company. Where the opportunity is.
RT: Invested social and mobile. Encouraging those in social to look at mobile. Mobile is still a greenfield. Suspect large players will be successful, but also smaller.
KS: Seldom large companies who are able to adapt to new platforms first. But we’re fortunate as we have the biggest mobile publisher in the world. EA. Good hold in the market. Will pose challenges to everybody. Small team today, good place to be.
JS: Peter why have you guys been focused on Asia lately?
PR: Mobile. We’ve run an incubator, we have investments, announced a deal to launch OpenFeint in China. Some visibility. Got into Japan over a year ago, not in a big way. Through partnership. Know freemium model came out of Asia. Can tell you that we’re planning to double in size — developers, etc. One third of production will be mobile, because it’s a young new platform. Doesn’t have the Facebook layer quite as strongly with the viral distribution in 08, 09. But there are other ways. Trying hard. Bullish, we have to earn our way on.
VM: We’ve had a couple of launches in Japan, we haven’t figured it out yet. We’re working very hard to do so.
JS: If you were a developer starting today, trying to figure out where to build — Facebook, Android, iOS.
VM: iOS and Android for us.
RT: Throw a dart. Follow your heart. Hard to predict. Long-term, couldn’t be more bullish on Facebook. But if you have lower budget and quicker need to success, go mobile. My investments committed to a primary market.
PR: If I had a startup, which startup? If you want to take a chance, contrarian, Android. Get an early start. Doesn’t have quite the download volume of iOS. But all those people on 07,08 did well. iOS is crowded. You need venture financing, buy way into distribution. If you want to build a very very targeted high-ARPU, almost nichey (can be 30M users on Facebook). Facebook still has a huge. Just market very big. Analyst reports. Facebook just dwarfs others. iOS is Facebook-style games.
JS: One of the things you guys didn’t say was the other traditional platforms. Also didn’t say building off Facebook using Connect. Those omissions intentional?
KS: Grown quickly on Facebook, internationally? In very varied set of platforms. Facebook remains incredibly important. See it in new environments. What platform? Good way to look at it. What do you think the world is going to look like? Focus on content, like Angry Birds guys. Didn’t really matter which ones they started on.
[Ed. Panelists did not answer the question.]
JS: So what’s going to be different about games this year?
PR: We went from sim games to focus on Flash RPGs. First RPGs were good in terms of visuals, performance, but not really there. CrowdStar is doing Flash RPGs. Very much focused on immersiveness. But not trying to manage. Every year we’ve seen it go from simple apps to HTML RPGs to sims to Flash RPGs. Going to see evolution.
KS: See triple-A games launches on the platfrom. Tighter mobile-social. Quality is going to continue to rise to the top? Also break-outs from categories we didn’t even know existed.
Audience question: What about the article on Inside Social Games yesterday showing the rise of smaller developers even though larger ones have flattened?
PR: Weird financial phenomenon. When you’re a small developer, you have venture capital. Propensity to spend on customer acquisition — risk of spending is higher. Can spend if you have it, which a lot of developers do. If you’re a larger developer. Same financial profile. Has certain costs on Facebook. Have to be more disciplined. Amount of capital flowing into social gaming industry is having dramatic impact on ability for smaller developers to get an audience. That’s one.
Audience question: To Kristian, felt that Connect would carry elsewhere. But we don’t see social evolving on the mobile side.
KS: Mobile is one of the most social devices in the world. I think social and mobile fit quite well together. I think the Facebook mobile experience remains high-friction. Actual DAUs. In terms of mobile usage. Dwarf any other social network or mobile by some margin. Of course there are game-specific verticals being built. I think they have a place. But as Facebook, handset providers, and service providers get better at merging, I think consumers will choose the best social experience — would be surprising if it didn’t turn out like social on Facebook.
JS: So what can Facebook do to improve that?
Peter Relan: Single sign-on helped. We put one of our Facebook games on mobile (Happy Island). Played on mobile. Those players dropped out when they came to Facebook. Facebook players went to mobile, though. Mobile gaming is not stumble-upon gaming. How will social gaming be played on mobile? We’re doubling, putting one third on mobile.
Audience question: What about games for kids?
PR: Pass-back market. Send back to kids in the backseat. Mobile and tablet is superb. OpenFeint has 60 million users, half are iPod Touch (which tends to be kids, younger).
Audience question: What about cross-promotion across platforms?
VM: Focusing on relevance of user experience. Very small thing. Start to show friends playing other games as promo in our bar. Started to show increased activity. Personal relevance for users. Expect us to use all these things.
PR: In Silicon Valley we’re focused on tech, but I would argue cross-promo is more about demo than promo.
Audience question: Analytics is hot. What important discoveries have been made? What’s hot?
VM: We’ve invested in analytics, data. We continue to learn that social games is just as much art as it is science. How do you drive great experiences?
Audience question: How can you integrate Facebook tools with games?
VM: Ripe for innovation. How do we tie in — 7-11 campaign worked well.