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Facebook developer Jesse Farmer has slurped the Developer Forums for the last 3 months and found some powerful trends: since January, posts per day are down 51%, and and the number of contributing developers is down 27%. In addition, Farmer has tracked daily active user levels for apps launched during that same time period, and the numbers correlate: the later apps have been launched, the lower daily activity levels have been. Farmer concludes that it’s getting harder to have success on the Facebook Platform, and developers are turning their interests elsewhere.
While it’s clear from Farmer’s numbers that developer activity peaked in January, the most important signals of the Facebook Platform economy are ultimately not forum posts but rather financials. As the initial wave of interest in the platform settles out and those working on cracking the monetization nut march on, the true test of the viability of the Facebook Platform is whether a substantial number of entrepreneurs will be able to establish successful businesses that can weather ongoing changes in platform conditions.
The good news for developers is that as social networks compete for developer attention, they will have to prove that the economic health of their developer community is strong. That game is still very early.
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May 7th, 2008 at 10:23 am
I don’t think that the developer forum activity can be used as in indicator of platform heath. The developer forum is used mostly by developers who are new to facebook and those who need help. As developers get better they stop using the forums and stop making posts. They also contribute less as they learn more and become more successful. They do not wanting to share any secrets or help out their competition.
May 7th, 2008 at 10:52 am
These trends are a good indication that the Apps craze trend is calming down, at least at Facebook, as app developers either are finding it hard to monetize an app, create a sustainable viral app or possibly they’re focusing more time on OpenSocial, building apps that can slap into multiple networks.
On the user side, I wonder if a large amount of people share my attitude and find 99% of social network apps stupid and pointless and app invite spam extremely annoying, invasive and anti-productive.
May 7th, 2008 at 11:43 am
Mike,
Justin slightly mis-represents my report. I don’t claim that developer activity is a measure of the health of the platform, only of engagement in the developer community.
I then looked at the level of success people are finding on Facebook and found that both trends are highly correlated.
My conclusion is that fewer developers are engaged because Facebook, starting in mid-January, has been making it increasingly difficult to succeed on the platform.
Whether this is good or bad for the platform is another matter entirely. I think it’s certainly good for Facebook.
May 7th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
I have to agree with Mike. I think most serious developers who are trying to build useful next gen apps on exisiting platforms, facebook or otherwise, do not have a need for the forum.
What I believe we are seeing with the forum decline, is that the huge number of silly, useless, I’m gonna send you a (insert substance/item here) app developers no longer need help, or are moving on to the next dev fad.
I kinda see it as a good sign, hoping that the real benefit of the user base is utilized for creative and useful apps provided by quality coders. I still don’t think anyone should be putting all there eggs in one basket though.
May 9th, 2008 at 11:52 am
C Dharma,
I address the “documentation hypothesis” in my update to my original report.
The short of it: even if it’s true it doesn’t explain the data.
May 23rd, 2008 at 12:09 am
Jesse,
Dumb but sincere question but what are the things you think that made the facebook platform un-friendly to devs?
Really interested.
Best.
alain